Rising energy and raw material prices, exploding international transport costs and an increased enthusiasm for technological innovation that has inspired respect in some people: it is understandable that the bicycle, but above all the e-bike, has become more expensive in recent years - the coronavirus pandemic has had an additional impact. The saying of some bicycle critics "I might as well buy a car for that!" was or is indeed no longer to be dismissed. But then you only have a car. But at the end of 2022, news came that was unexpected for the layman and even for some insiders: Rose Bikes, one of the biggest direct sellers in the industry, announced price cuts. At a time when bicycles with and without motors had risen to completely new price levels. And the mail order company was just a pioneer. Over the course of the year, many manufacturers and many large and small retailers announced price reductions. What had happened then?
Bicycle trade: Increased demand with reduced supply
Let's take a look at some current figures: By May 2023, over one million e-bikes had been produced in Germany - an increase of five per cent compared to the same period last year. And that was just the continuation of a dynamic that had already picked up speed the year before. Imports to Germany have also increased significantly, explains the German Bicycle Industry Association (ZIV). At the same time, significantly fewer bikes and e-bikes were purchased up to March 2023, mainly due to the bad weather. An enormous oversupply has therefore developed, which manufacturers like Rose saw coming at the time. It is clear that manufacturers, but increasingly also dealers, are trying to boost sales with more favourable prices. If you talk to the latter (see interview), it actually turns out that there is currently an oversupply, especially in the e-bike sector, which is causing problems for dealers.
The bicycle industry, the entire sector, is in a state of upheaval
This is good for the buyer - on the one hand: the prices of the current models have fallen at almost every dealer in recent weeks and months; on average, dealers are cutting prices by 20 per cent, but sometimes much more. On the other hand, especially in the e-bike sector, the local dealer is an important partner when it comes to service. The short distance to the workshop, the trusting relationship, that is often worth a lot to us. However, it is precisely these often smaller dealers who will be particularly affected if they are left sitting on their orders for 2023. If you look at the background, you realise that the industry in general is in a state of upheaval: It is not only for reasons such as those described above that production in Europe is increasing. Since the consistent switch to aluminium as the frame material in the 1980s, by far the majority of frames have come from Asia. Cambodia was also the main supplier of the bikes themselves. However, a rethink has been underway for years and with it a trend that has intensified with the pandemic: reshoring, i.e. bringing production back to the home country or - under the term "nearshoring" - to neighbouring countries.
Almost three million bicycles were imported to Germany in 2022. 44 per cent of these came from EU countries (growing strongly).
The Mühltal-based manufacturer Riese und Müller already has a large proportion of its frames built in Portugal. Even if some manufacturers do not want to completely withdraw from Asia as their main frame manufacturer any time soon due to the expertise and decades of experience there, Europe is on the rise. Reasons for this: shorter and less complicated supply chains, often shorter reaction times for decisions, less dependence on political influences. Not to forget: Shorter distances and often higher environmental standards ensure greater sustainability in production and logistics. And that's an argument that some bike manufacturers have been making for a long time. What's more, there will be no escaping it in the future. As particularly environmentally friendly vehicles, e-bikes and bicycles can also play a pioneering role here.
What does reshoring have to do with favourable prices?
If the proportion of European production had already been very high before the pandemic, there would hardly have been such a supply overhang since last year. However, it is safe to say that prices would not have risen so sharply in between, as the availability of bikes and, for manufacturers, components would have been higher. In this respect, the development towards customised production is definitely complex.
Could have, would have, bike chain: the fact is that prices are currently inviting you to think about a new e-bike or bike. There is still plenty of choice, but the situation is likely to be considerably different at the end of winter. On the other hand, you shouldn't necessarily speculate that prices will fall even further towards next spring. And: What good is the model of your choice at a special price if my frame size is no longer available?
The disadvantage of the current bargain hunt is that you may not get the latest model. "Possibly" because quite a few manufacturers have dropped or had to drop the "one new model per year" model policy during the pandemic at the latest. However, a lot has actually happened in the motor and shifting sector of e-bikes at the moment. Anyone speculating on the latest technology here will not find it in the currently discounted models - however, they cannot expect to find it in the models that will be available from dealers in spring either.
Incidentally, the warranty service for the new bike in the event of damage is not affected if I buy a 23 model: the period generally applies from the date of purchase, not from the date of manufacture of the bike.
Interview with Lothar Könekamp, Managing Director of a specialist bicycle shop
MYBIKE: Mr Könekamp, if I want to save money, is it worth waiting until winter, or should I buy my bike now?
Lothar Könekamp: Definitely now! The shops are full and prices have already plummeted. Retailers have to make sure that they can accommodate the new goods they have ordered, so they need to empty their warehouses now.
How much choice in terms of models and sizes do you currently have in your specialist shop?
The choice is absolutely there, at least for the vast majority of brands. Dealers have around 80 per cent more bikes than usual at this time of year. A lot of this is due to the large number of orders placed by dealers during the coronavirus period, which unfortunately could only be delivered very late. Of course, this also means a lot of pressure for some small local dealers - the large ones and dealer chains can usually compensate for this very well. So if you want your local specialist shop to remain open so that you can continue to enjoy local service, you should think about it and definitely check out what's on offer there.
Does the wide range cover all bike segments?
For our areas, it looks as if this is only not fundamentally true in the gravel segment. In my opinion, however, the reduced delivery capacity here is primarily due to the lack of components. The gravel trend was clearly underestimated at the beginning, so that too few parts were produced in general - meaning that bikes could not be completed.
And what if customers want a 24 model that has just been released?
They will then have to wait or pay significantly more than for the current models - provided the manufacturer is orientated towards the annual cycle.
5 points for buying an e-bike or bicycle
- Anyone who stationary retailers should make the most of the opportunity to test drive it extensively!
- It is better to forego the desired colour in favour of a important function (such as luggage transport).
- Do not stop in the practice unimportant points fixed, e.g. no "ladies' bike"!
- Neglecting topicalityThe very latest engine does not always have to be the best option.
- Non-negotiable: the right Size and the right Sitting posture.
