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When the new products for the next season are presented at Eurobike in July, the prices of the previous year's models fall at the same time. This pleases those consumers who don't necessarily have to have the latest technology, and annoys retailers, who have to be much more precise when ordering their goods because of this expiry date, in order to know what they can sell by that day. The big run on the new models began in the spring, and what was still in the shops in May was still sold with the odd "bonus" or discount.
Bicycle bargains: When will the prices go down?
Four years ago, this well-established system or rhythm that existed in virtually every consumer sector was overturned - in almost every technology segment, but particularly in the case of bicycles, although the origins of this paradigm shift can be traced back a little earlier. However, the effects for retailers, manufacturers and consumers are being felt right now. If you look at the current bicycle market, you can hardly see any bikes and accessories at list price or RRP (manufacturer's recommended retail price).
Many shops are now adorned with red "SALE" banners in spring, as you would expect during the autumn sales or in dodgy mattress shops. It's no different online. We found discounts of up to 70 per cent on bicycles during our researchThis meant that the new prices were sometimes below the level of the same model in used and refurbished condition. But why are dealers literally selling at almost any price?
Bicycles in surplus
Of course, they don't want to admit it officially, but it's an open secret in the industry: the warehouses of shops, manufacturers and even middlemen are full to the brim! And this is less due to gross miscalculations than to the bicycle boom and, how could it be otherwise, to corona. With pedelecs and the absolute trendsetter gravel bike driving the industry, the life of a sales representative in the bicycle sector in the early 2020s was a dream. New products were introduced every few weeks, the boom was fuelled by bike leasing and growing environmental awareness, the bad image of e-bikes had long been overcome and in trendsetting circles, nothing had been possible without an iconic two-wheeler for a long time.
When the pandemic meant that cycling, which could be practised in a lockdown-compliant manner without social contact, lured the last of the bike shysters into the shop, the calculations of the vast majority of retailers collapsed and in many places there was simply nothing left for them to sell. And while there were more and more sales at the end of the supply chain, the beginning collapsed. The vast majority of bicycle parts came from East Asia, but they were among the first and hardest hit by the pandemic, factories were deserted, sea containers were stuck on their way to Europe, we all remember this news.
Suddenly, not only were the most popular models in standard sizes missing, some dealers were happy to have anything left in the shop at all. As our sister magazine, "TOUR", reported at the end of 2023, it was almost impossible to calculate parts orders. In this context, our colleagues reported on a long-established company in Reda-Wiedenbrück that had to hold back entire warehouses full of "half-finished" bikes because they were waiting "for the last screw". A major bike brand from western Germany also told us at the time that they had almost 2000 bikes ready for delivery that were missing the left brake lever. And when the "rescue" container arrived, contrary to the delivery note, it only contained right-hand levers.
After delivery difficulties: Oversupply of parts
This imbalance between delivery and sales led to panic reactions in many places. Several sales staff, who do not wish to be named, think back to that time with pleasure. "In principle, we no longer held sales talks during the pre-orders. The dealers were almost vying to get as much of the remaining stock as possible. It was more about distributing than selling." That has now changed abruptly. The flow of parts from Asia has resumed. Good for those who had anticipated this and not bought in excess like so many others.
Last year, the delayed panic orders arrived at almost the same time as the current orders, which were back on track, in similar overlapping waves. And the resulting space problem is only the least of it; according to "Wirtschaftswoche", the tied-up capital is existential for smaller brands and shops in particular. In order to be able to pay for current orders on time, more bikes need to be sold. And in view of the still gloomy weather and strong competition, this can only be achieved through price.
And because almost all retailers feel the same way, the discount battle is already beginning; eIt's a matter of survival, some insolvencies have already been filed. These include smaller luxury brands such as Müsing, but also Big players like the online giant fahrrad.de. And even the biggest fish in the tank had to react. The Taiwanese "giant" Giant, which in addition to its own bikes also supplies colossal quantities for other brands, wrote to its suppliers asking for longer payment terms, as reported by "TOUR".
Anyone waiting for news from the manufacturers will have to wait longer this time, with the second half of the year often being mentioned. - Two-Wheeler Industry Association (ZIV) Berlin
Bicycle bargains: Boomed out
For three years, we bought bikes like there was no tomorrow. The statistics jumped from one sales record to the next, the total number of new bikes, but even more importantly their average value, rose and rose. It could have been predicted that the buyer base would eventually be saturated and the market would be served for a while, but it was difficult to predict the exact timing. And because everyone wanted a slice of the big cake, hardly any retailers reduced their pre-orders. This is now taking additional revenge.
The bike market has by no means collapsed, but the boom is over for now. It's a bit like the coronavirus mask business. At first, even the state had to buy huge quantities for a lot of money in order to get any at all; at the end of the pandemic, the excess stock was available for pennies. Even the Japanese company Shimano is experiencing a sharp drop in sales of around a quarter; the global player could be something of a weather balloon for the world market.
A large number of dealers with stocks full to the brim are therefore vying for a dwindling customer base. Sooner or later, this will lead to a consolidation of the bike market, according to an industry insider in Wirtschaftswoche. Just as dozens, if not more, new brands have sprung up in recent years, especially in the pedelec sector, many will disappear again.
Bicycle bargains due to faster pace of development
The faster pace of development is putting additional pressure on sales. In order to keep the market going and constantly create new sales incentives, it is clearly no longer enough to update an established product every few years. The frequency with which Bosch, Shimano or Bafang, for example, are currently launching new motors or updates onto the market, or new groupsets with more comfort or gear ratios, is really wild. The annual rhythm mentioned at the beginning no longer exists in this form. And the word "previous year's model" could be mockingly replaced with "previous month's model".
This is a problem for dealers. On the one hand, there is the group of customers who like to be up to date and only buy bikes with the latest equipment. The models that are not at all old, but not up-to-date, are left behind. Secondly, it's difficult for the salesperson: they either have to make the previous model more appealing than usual with price reductions or conceal the fact that a more modern version is already available. Currently, for example, we often see gravel bikes from model year 2023 with the GRX groupset and 11 sprockets in the shop, right next to those with one more sprocket on the current RX820 version.
One more gear doesn't sound like a revolution, but in combination with a crank with only one chainring, this is a real gain in comfort, plus a much more ergonomic grip and a brake that is much less susceptible to dirt and grinding. In order to make the previous model palatable, huge price reductions are necessary at a comparable purchase price. This minimises the dealer's profit or even eats it up completely.
Bicycle bargains even on new models?
Sometimes, however, the red pencil is already applied to the current models. For example, we found a KTM pedelec model from the previous year with a 20 per cent discount at the southern German top dog Fahrrad Stadler. At the same time, an almost identical bike, albeit not only with the aforementioned 12-speed groupset but also with the brand new Bosch SX motor, is being offered for just 100 euros more.
It is therefore also worth comparing the technical details of the "new" models. And the old model is not always much cheaper, nor is it always technically backward. In some cases, the rapid model change only affects the design adapted to current tastes or the supplier for handlebars or saddles, for example, so the 2023 can be just as good as the 24. Bargain hunters just need to know what is important to them.
At least we (the retailer community) can still maintain a certain price level, nobody has started to sell off the goods yet. - Burkhard Stork, ZIV Berlin
Market stabilisation
The general consensus is that the market will first become more hectic and then calm down. The market will probably become even more saturated due to the discount battles, but in a year's time the pre-pandemic rhythm will return, according to the majority of the industry. But what does this mean for consumers? Should they perhaps strike again now, even though the current bike promises a few more good years? Or is it worth waiting a few more months until the discounts have continued to build up? And how does the weather play its part in calming the market? Sunny days always attract people to the bike shops. And commuters and users of job bikes and the like are not bound by the season or trends anyway, but buy what they need when they need it.
If you don't see an urgent need for action when it comes to bikes and don't have any specific ideas about your dream bike, there's no need to panic and buy now. There will still be a suitable model in stock in one or two months' time. If you want to get a monster bargain, you should do your homework and keep a close eye on the models in question and their prices from now on. With every week that the next model change comes closer, the pressure on dealers to not only generate liquidity and create space, but also to get rid of models that will soon be two years old, grows.
Bicycle bargains, especially online
We advise the layman to visit a specialist dealer; only they can provide comprehensive information on the exact differences between the technology generations or what a discounted model can do less of. Larger dealerships even allow you to compare the current model with the discounted model on a test drive. Advantage of the local dealer: Sometimes, in addition to the discount, discounted accessories are also included, a top U-lock at the purchase price does him less harm but saves the customer another good 50 euros. However, the somewhat larger discounts are possible online. And this is especially true for platforms with more than just their own brands. While Canyon or Rose only occasionally offer discounts of more than 20 per cent, prices at webstores or chains such as BOC, Bikediscount or Bicycle XXL by up to an incredible 70 per cent.
This may be partly due to the fact that orders from previous years are only now arriving and need to "leave the yard" as quickly as possible, but it may also be due to supplier contracts ending and the brand simply disappearing from the range. Incidentally, insolvent brands cause little to no problems in the biobike sector - in the vast majority of cases, all components apart from the frame come from suppliers and can be easily replaced in the event of defects. You can buy these bikes without any worries. Pedelecs from companies that no longer exist may be fitted with special parts. In this case, you should look for a workshop that is prepared to carry out any repairs and ensure the supply of parts before purchasing.
Highest discounts on the most popular models
Anyone buying online should compare the equipment list with similar models in a similar price range. Incidentally, the steepest discounts can be found in precisely those segments that have been particularly turbulent in recent years. Mid-range pedelecs, both sporty and for everyday use, seem to be the spearhead here. However, racing bikes and gravel bikes are following hot on their heels. Interesting and certainly not unimportant when making a decision: there seems to be an increase in the percentage discounts within the respective class.
If you look at pedelecs from 2500 to 4500 euros, for example, the average proportional discount increases steadily, while models in the absolute top class are offered almost without any discount. Obviously, luxury components such as titanium frames, Pinion gearboxes or Rohloff hubs make a bike very stable in value. It can therefore make sense to look for something above your own price range in the mid-range segment. For perhaps 200 euros more, you can end up with a bike whose original value was 600 or 800 euros higher. 2024 is and will definitely be an excellent year to buy a bike!
The desire to buy, which has been dampened by the war in Ukraine, inflation and energy prices, is also being felt in the bike industry, but not as strongly as in the retail sector as a whole. - Michael Faiss, Focus Mobility
